Agria with record earnings in Q3’22 of BGN 36.2m (POSITIVE)

28.11.2022 Source: Agria Group Holding; FFBH

Agria Group Holding reported consolidated revenue of BGN 180.8m (-9.0% YoY). Note, that the decline in revenue was despite YoY higher grain prices on international markets, which indicates even larger drop in sold volumes and is in line with our expectations. The lower sales volumes in Q3’22 could be related to international trade shifting focus away from Bulgaria to Ukraine, after the grain deal with Russia was signed and transport corridors for cargo ships were opened. That being said, cost of materials dropped faster to BGN 125.0m (-27.9% YoY), which was the primary reason for OPEX dropping 25.0% YoY to BGN 140.3m. The YoY decline of cost of materials was mainly due to much lower book value of sold goods of BGN 78.4m, compared to BGN 147.3m a year ago. This implies much higher premium of the sold goods over their book value than we expected. A possible explanation could be that the company primarily sold its own production from the agribusiness division, which could have benefited from earlier build-up in inventory of fertilizers and other inputs before the inflation hit that market, thus keeping book value relatively low. Consequently, EBITDA amounted to BGN 40.5m (+248.7% YoY), while the respective margin improved 16.6 p.p. to 22.4%. Depreciation was 15.1% higher YoY, but financial expenses came at BGN 933k or 63.0% lower YoY as BGN 2.0m loss from investments was recorded in Q3’21. The bottom line amounted to a record high BGN 36.2m or almost x6 YoY, which translates into EPS of BGN 5.36, taking into account that the company bought back 50k shares out of the total 6.8m. For the first nine months of 2022, revenue amounted to BGN 509.4m (+53.7% YoY), while OPEX advanced slower to BGN 415.1m (+38.6% YoY). The EBITDA margin advanced to 18.5%, which is 8.9 p.p. higher YoY. Depreciation was 38.3% YoY higher at BGN 9.7m, while financial expenses amounted to BGN 2.5m (-42.1% YoY). The bottom line amounted to a record BGN 82.1m (x4 YoY) or EPS of BGN 12.2. On the balance sheet, inventory levels jumped to BGN 205.2m, compared to BGN 118.7m in the beginning of the year and BGN 110.7m in Q3'21. It’s important to note, that the increase in inventory could be attributed to lower sales volumes, as well as higher grains prices, as inventory is probably valued at higher YoY prices. The large inventory build-up could turn out to be a problem when realized if international grain prices continue their downward move. IB debt reached BGN 244.3m, compared to BGN 215.0m on the beginning of the year with the vast majority of it being short-term financing. CFO for the quarter came at negative BGN 43.4m, compared to negative BGN 34.7m. Note, that this is quite normal for Agria, as the biggest source of revenue – the trading division of the business, usually is a net buyer as the harvest campaign kicks in the beginning of Q3. In the MD&A report, the company reported that as of the end of Q3’22, EUR 8.0m were spent in acquisitions out of EUR 33.0m planned for the whole year. Given that the Almagest acquisition happened in Q4’22, this would imply that the deal is likely around EUR 25.0m.