Bulgaria’s budget at 0.8% deficit as of October 2023; balance is expected to improve as of November

04.12.2023 Source: Ministry of Finance; FFBH

The revenues under the consolidated fiscal programme (CFP) of the Bulgarian government totalled BGN 53.4bn as of end-October, which accounts for 76.9% of the annual estimates. Compared to the same period of 2022, they increased by BGN 3.2bn in nominal terms. Tax proceeds registered 11.3% YoY growth to BGN 42bn, while non-tax and grant and donation proceeds (mostly EU programme and fund grants) amounted to BGN 9.5bn and BGN 2bn, respectively. CFP expenditures, including the contribution of Bulgaria to the EU budget for October 2023, amounted to BGN 54.9bn (74.1% of the annual estimates), up 9.2% YoY. The CFP budget balance on a cash basis as of 31 October 2023 was negative, amounting to BGN 1.44bn (0.8% of GDP), and is formed by a deficit of BGN 1.3bn under the national budget and BGN 168.9m under EU funds. As of 31.08.2023, the fiscal reserve amounted to BGN 12.5bn. According to the preliminary data for November 2023, the deficit under the CFP is expected at BGN 1bn, or 0.6% of GDP. The budget balance improvement would come from higher advanced receipts of corporate tax and better fiscal control. Jan-Nov 2023 revenues are to total BGN 60.1bn, while expenditures (including contribution to the EU budget) to reach BGN 61.1bn. *Ministry of Finance 2023 GDP forecast of BGN 191.2bn.