In its Autumn forecast, the European Commission (EC) made an upward revision of its expectations for the Bulgarian economy in 2022, and projected slowdown in 2023 before resumption of higher growth in 2024. GDP is set to expand by 3.1% this year (+0.3% revision compared to Summer report) on 8.4% growth in public consumption, while rising prices and higher interest rates are estimated to weight down on private consumption. GDP growth is forecasted to decelerate to 1.1% in 2023 (-1.2% revision) out of sharp decline in domestic and foreign demand, and then to rebound by 2.4% in 2024 as external conditions are expected to improve. Investments are supposed to register 8% decrease in 2022, while afterwards to firm up due to absorption of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funds. Annual HICP is expected to have peaked at 12.8% in 2022 and then it should come down from 7.4% in 2023 to 3.2% in 2024 as food and energy price inflation is awaited to decelerate gradually. Budget deficit is expected to follow a downward path over the forecast period from 3.4% of GDP in 2022 down to 2.5% in 2024. EC noted that the calculation are based on the fact that budget law for 2023 is yet to be adopted, meaning that regular expenditure items are going to follow the monthly execution of last year. Government debt is expected to be around 22.5% of GDP in 2022 and to accumulate thereafter to the level of 25.6% in 2024 as the measures to mitigate high energy prices, increase in public sector wages and pension system amendments should be covered. Unemployment rate is anticipated to be 5.2% in 2022 and remain around that level thereafter. The main risks in the Autumn forecast are related to the evolution of geopolitical situation and its reverberations in commodity markets and beyond. Adverse developments on the gas market, especially in the winter of 2023, and potential erratic adjustments of financial markets to the new high interest rate environmental also hang over EU economic.